Medicine demand forecast

The brief

A pharma plant makes too much of some medicines and runs short of others during fever season. Forecast demand by product group with seasonal patterns, so planners can schedule production and stock. Good looks like: forecasts that beat a seasonal baseline, back-tested over past years, with a stock plan.

What you will build

1. Build monthly or weekly demand series
2. Explore seasonality by product group
3. Compare seasonal-naive, ARIMA and gradient-boosted forecasts
4. Back-test over past seasons
5. Turn forecasts into a production and stock plan

Free, open data to build it with

• Pharma sales data ↗ Kaggle

Check each dataset's licence before you publish your work. Your mentor gives your team its own version of the brief (data, scope or region), so every team's project is its own.